Currency swing, the hryvnia exchange rate began to grow.
The fight against speculation in the foreign exchange market brought the first result. After fourteen banks were disconnected from the interbank, the dollar quickly fell by three hryvnias.
Throughout the past week, the Ukrainian currency has constantly fallen in price, its rate on the interbank market fell to almost fourteen hryvnias per dollar. Exactly the same situation was in the cash market. However, the trading volume did not rise above four hundred and fifty million dollars. For comparison, we can say that during the Maidan, this figure exceeded four billion dollars. According to this indicator, we can conclude that the jumps in the exchange rate are largely caused by speculation, and not by real indicators of demand for currency.This is the opinion expressed by Stepan Kubiv, head of the NBU. The National Bank tried to stop speculators and announced the decision to disconnect fourteen banks from the system of the interbank foreign exchange market. In addition, it was decided to increase the discount rate to nine and a half percent. Of course, the discount rate does not directly affect the interbank market, but such a signal was also heard by speculators. The very day after the introduction of these measures, one could observe their result, the official dollar exchange rate fell by almost one hryvnia.
Who rocked the market?
Analysts say that the sharp depreciation of the national currency was lower than it could economically be justified. In their opinion, the nature of the exchange rate was non-market in nature, and was associated with the inability of the National Bank to use such a market instrument as foreign exchange intervention.
This is what was taken into service by some banks. According to insider information from one Russian financial institution, it became known that the last few days before the end of the interbank trading session, several applications carried out an intentional inflation rate. It is very remarkable that it is the Russian banks that are most suspected of swaying the rate.
For many bankers, such a sharp reaction by the NBU to abuse was unexpected. Previously, such situations ended with a simple warning and a call to the head. However, in this situation, it was necessary to obtain a quick effect.
It is assumed that the National Bank is ready to go further in its sanctions. Some banks that are already disconnected from the interbank system may lose their license. According to Stepan Kubiv, when confirming speculative operations on the exchange, the bank will lose its license, it’s unacceptable to build your happiness on a mountain of people.